As the nation turned to Iowa to watch the GOP contest, a surprising thing happened. The election was called for Trump by several big news organizations before many Iowans even voted. The caucuses opened at 7 PM CST, and by 7:31 PM CST, Trump had been declared victorious, with DeSantis projected to earn second place.
Iowa Republican Party Chairman Jeff Kaufmann was less than happy when several prominent news organizations, like Fox, AP, MSNBC, and CNN, called the results for Trump before many Iowans could warm up their cars and head to the caucuses.
Kauffman expressed disappointment and concern over media outlets calling the results less than half an hour after precinct caucuses began, emphasizing that there was no need to rush the reporting before most Iowans had even cast their ballots.
DeSantis’ campaign communications director, Andrew Romeo, called it “election interference,” stating somewhat inexplicably that the incident was an example of how the “media is in the tank” for Trump.
Nate Silver, the founder of the polling website FiveThirtyEight, expressed concern about the networks declaring the winner while some people were still voting at many caucus sites. He shared his thoughts on X (formerly Twitter), saying that this practice isn’t ideal and shows a lack of consideration for the democratic process. Silver mentioned the ongoing issue where networks swing between overly cautious and too eager and pointed out a need for clear standards for declaring winners.
News organizations predict election results early by using statistics, exit polls, and trends in vote counting. They use models that examine how people historically vote and demographics to make early guesses based on the available info. Exit polls, which ask people about their votes as they leave the voting place, can weigh heavily in early predictions, as can looking at past election data. While counting votes, news groups look at regions reporting early results to call an election.
Concession speeches from candidates acknowledging victory or defeat can contribute to the decision to call results early.
But mistakenly calling an election has disastrous consequences for news organizations. One notable example is the 2000 U.S. presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore. On election night, major news networks initially projected Gore as the winner in Florida but later retracted their calls. The state’s results were highly contested, leading to a recount and legal battles.
Another example is the 1948 U.S. presidential election between Harry S. Truman and Thomas E. Dewey. The Chicago Tribune famously printed a front-page headline declaring “Dewey Defeats Truman” based on early information. However, Truman won, and the premature headline became an iconic symbol of inaccurate election reporting.
More recently was the fallout experienced by both Fox News and the Associated Press during the 2020 election. Both organizations called Arizona for now-President Joe Biden, a decision they would regret as the race narrowed over the days following the election. While Biden officially won the state nine days later, the incident raised ethical questions regarding Fox’s allegiance and the AP’s bias.
Monday night, news organizations defended early calls for Trump’s victory in Iowa. “CNN can make this projection based on his overwhelming lead in our entrance poll of Iowa caucus-goers and some initial votes coming in,” Jake Tapper said. The AP made its call by analyzing early returns and the results of AP VoteCast, their signature survey conducted with over 1,500 voters who intended to participate in the caucuses.
But what sets a caucus apart from other primaries is that Iowans can listen to presidential candidates or surrogates before casting their vote. That means they have far more freedom to change their mind than those voting in a traditional primary, and it can mean that calling an election may not always be accurate for news organizations predicting caucus results.
But several news organizations believed the outcome was fixed by 7:30 PM CST, when early results from eight counties indicated that Donald Trump had secured a significant majority of the total votes counted, with other candidates trailing far behind.
The Iowa caucuses resulted in a setback for Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, who needed strong outcomes to position themselves as viable alternatives to Trump. DeSantis secured 21 percent of the vote, while Haley finished third with 19 percent. Vivek Ramaswamy decided to exit the race following a dismal fourth-place finish with only 8 percent of the vote.
The remaining GOP candidates are turning their hopes to New Hampshire’s more traditional primary process on January 23.
